These forecasts are currently under development and the website will be updated gradually!

Geomagnetic activity indices like Kp and Hpo (Hp60 & Hp30) are crucial for forecasting the impact of solar-driven geomagnetic activity on technology and human activities. Our new model (Kervalishvili et al., 2025) improves predictions by incorporating data from individual observatories, addressing local effects overlooked by previous methods. This approach enhances accuracy for Kp and higher-resolution Hpo indices, capturing trends even with limited solar wind data.

Three different forecasts are shown, because they depend strongly on the different available forecasts of solar wind parameters. The geomagnetic Hpo index is a Kp-like index with a time resolution of half an hour, called Hp30, and one hour, called Hp60 (Yamazaki et al., 2022). Besides that, the Hpo index is not capped at 9 like Kp but is an open-ended index that describes the strongest geomagnetic storms more nuanced than the three-hourly Kp, which is limited to the maximum value of 9.

Description

Each movie visualizes predicted Kp (Hpo) and Ks (Hso) values at the 13 observatories contributing to the Kp (Hpo) index. The inner circle color at each station reflects the Kp (Hpo) index intensity, ranging from quiet (green) to extreme+ (magenta), according to NOAA Geomagnetic Storm scales. The outer ring around each labeled observatory indicates the difference between the Kp (Hpo) and Ks (Hso) values: blue shows values below Kp (Hpo), white indicates matching values, and red shows values above.

Forecast

We have trained a machine learning forecast model based on solar wind parameters (OMNI, high resolution) and sunspot number (OMNI, low resolution). Minute-by-minute values have been used for IMF Bt, Proton Density, Flow speed and hourly values for the sunspot number. This approach uses a simplified model of Kervalishvili et al., 2025 using only IMF Bt and constant sun spot number (last dataset).

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